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INFORMED

Main Project Information
Goal
Task
Where Online only
Description

We need your help to make our project a success! Our Jacobs Technology Inc. Agent-Based and Complex Systems (ABC) groupi in Ann Arbor, Michigan, has won a project with the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity (IARPA) as part of the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program. Our “INterrelated FOrecasts Reflecting Models behind Experts' Decisions” (INFORMED) project seeks ways to aggregate forecasts from multiple knowledgeable subjects to yield a group forecast that is more accurate than any individual. We are developing novel concepts that go well beyond the traditional aggregation or Delphi methods you may be familiar with. The forecasts deal with the kinds of topics about which you probably have some knowledge and interest: politics, economics, the development of science and technology, social events, and public health issues.

This project was recently mentioned as the most exciting technology IARPA is working on! Be part of it!

We need your help and participation to assure the success of this project. So we are asking you to participate and share your knowledge on relevant world and U.S. issues. We need as many people as possible to collect sufficient data to develop and prove our forecasting methodology. Besides that, you will have fun testing your knowledge and observing how well we (you) perform in predicting real world events.

How to Join

As a volunteer forecaster, you would
Register a user account with our web-based prototype software

You may use any email account you like – even an anonymous one you create just for this purpose.
Complete a short questionnaire to provide us with some high-level demographic data

All our human subject data is completely anonymized and cannot be traced back to the particular individual as governed by an independently audited process.

Visit the prototype at frequent intervals to select forecasting problems posted there and provide new or updated forecasts by selecting among available outcome options

We do not expect that a subject spends more than 3-5 minutes on a forecast and may address as many (or as few) problems as he or she likes.

We are still at the beginning of this exciting project. You will see our research prototype evolve from the rudimentary state it is in right now to a sophisticated platform that will offer forecaster competitions, feedback on your forecasting performance, as well as detailed communication of the way individual forecasts are aggregated into a robust prediction.

You can find out more about our project at our public wiki space:
https://activewiki.net/display/IarpaAceInformedPublic/Home

From there, you will be directed to the live prototype for sign-up.

Website https://activewiki.net/display/IarpaAceInformedPublic/Home
Social Media
Required Gear

A computer with Internet access.

Ideal Age Group Adults
Spend the Time indoors
Tags forecast, prediction
Project Updated 04/21/2017